Bullion Brieifing 2nd June 2025

Gold Finds Its Altitude

Gold continues to climb now at $3,377 (as I type this) anchored by a tightening band of technical momentum and macroeconomic turbulence. The range is clear: $3,167 to $3,440.

Futures are pressing toward the ceiling, recently hitting $3,398.89, a 2.52% gain.

The backdrop? A dollar in retreat. The Dollar Index has slipped to 98 as markets digest fraying trade agreements and a fluid rate environment. The implications stretch beyond gold: the US 30 has dipped 0.50%. Meanwhile, commodities are showing strength Crude Oil up 3.24%, Copper advancing 4.66%.

This. isa true signal for any investor out there. The kind that points to more than a short-term price move. Three forces stand out:

→ Technical conviction, now well-established in the charts.

→ A fundamental realignment in monetary policy expectations.

→ Rising correlation signals across major asset classes most notably energy and industrial metals.

Gold is leading the charge as it often does being the canary for the changing tide of economic and geopolitical powert.

Gold’s Technical Landscape: A Market Under Tension

Price tightens near highs as structural conviction builds.

Gold is iholding its ground with intent. At $3,334, the metal trades just beneath historic peaks, firmly within its defined band of $3,167 to $3,440. The structure is deliberate: a series of higher lows, confirmed by futures reaching $3,398.89 up 2.52%.

This looks like controlled pressure. The pattern unfolding suggests accumulation, not exhaustion. Support levels are being respected. Resistance is being tested not rejected.

The key zones are now in plain view.

→ Immediate resistance sits at $3,365 and $3,440.

→ Short-term support holds at $3,277.

→ Deeper structural backing rests between $3,167 and $3,120.

The tightening price band near resistance without abrupt selloffs— ndicates sustained interest at elevated levels. This is not typical late-cycle behaviour.

If the upper band breaks, the Fibonacci roadmap projects the next markers at $3,600 and $3,740. In this context, the current range may not be a ceiling it may be a staging ground.

Dollar Weakness and Gold’s Strategic Rise

Capital tiliting toward gola, and plenty more to come.

The U.S. dollar has slipped to 98.592 on the Dollar Index a quiet but consequential move.

In a market driven as much by relative positioning as by fundamentals, that decline is doing more than denting the greenback’s prestige. It’s reigniting global appetite for dollar-denominated assets especially gold.

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Trade tensions are flaring once again, with recent U.S. court decisions revisiting Trump-era tariffs. Add in murky interest rate expectations and the picture sharpens: institutional portfolios are being forced to adapt, and safe havens are back in favour.

The dollar’s weakness feeds a loop. As it falls, gold becomes more attractive. As gold inflows rise, the currency feels further pressure. Traders recognise the pattern and so do allocators. But despite the backdrop, many institutional books still hold gold light. That gap may not last long.

Three forces now dominate the flow picture:

→ A softening U.S. dollar that cuts across asset pricing globally.

→ Renewed trade instability prompting defensive allocations.

→ Market speculation around rate cuts that weaken yield appeal.

Together, they’re redefining the logic behind owning it. Gold back to the forefront of invetors minds after a lengthy exile.

Crosscurrents in Motion: Commodities Climb as Equities Stumble

Amid trade friction and dollar softness, asset classes decouple...

Financial markets are rarely uniform. This week confirmed that. While the US 30 edged down 0.50% on mounting trade tensions, commodities moved decisively higher led by industrial bellwethers.

Copper futures surged 4.66% to $4.8955. Crude WTI rose 3.24%, closing at $62.76.

The divergence is telling and this isn’t a classic risk-off move. It’s way more nuanced.

Equities are reacting to policy friction and geopolitical overhang. But copper a proxy for industrial demand climbing nearly 5% tells a different story. Despite macro uncertainty, parts of the real economy are still pulsing. The same holds for crude, where supply constraints and solid demand may be converging.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues its drift lower down 0.67% to 98.592. That slide has added lift to raw materials across the board, enhancing commodity appeal to global buyers.

This split performance reveals more than temporary noise:

→ Equities are showing pressure under geopolitical and macro weight.

→ Commodities are benefiting from real-world fundamentals and currency tailwinds.

→ Investors are no longer moving in sync they’re picking their bets with care.

In a market like this, correlation fades and selectivity becomes strategy.

Silent Strength: Positioning Signals a Rally with Room

With futures interest near historic lows, gold’s rise lacks the usual crowd.....yet

There’s a tension building beneath the surface of the gold market and it’s not coming from price. Gold is pressing near record highs, but CME open interest has dropped to just 425,000 contracts historically low territory. That kind of dislocation raises eyebrows.

Strong prices with thin participation often signal pent-up momentum.

In short: the crowd hasn’t shown up yet.

Institutional exposure tells a similar story. Despite clear macro drivers and defined technical breakouts, many large funds remain light on gold. Allocation levels are well below historical norms, revealing a lag between narrative conviction and portfolio action.

That gap matters. Because if capital starts to rotate even modestly into the metals complex, the upward pressure could be outsized. There’s no need to “chase” a trade that hasn’t yet been crowded.

→ Futures positioning remains thin despite price highs.

→ Institutions are underweight relative to past cycles.

→ The current rally may be less a top, more a beginning.

In previous bull markets, high prices walked hand-in-hand with crowded trades. Today, the opposite. That’s not a warning in my opinion it’s an opportunity.

Take aways....

With structural support, macro fuel, and underweight positioning gold holds the high ground.

Gold remains firm at $3,334, consolidating within a clear $3,167–$3,440 range. Futures continue to lead, reaching $3,398.89 a 2.52% gain. The move isn’t isolated.

The Dollar Index has slid to 98.592, reinforcing the broader support for dollar-priced commodities.

Technically, resistance at $3,440 remains in play. But if that ceiling breaks, the path opens toward extended Fibonacci levels at $3,600 and $3,740. Beneath current prices, the structure holds multiple layers of support: $3,277, followed by a deeper zone stretching to $2,880. The 200-day moving average at $2,830 anchors the broader trend.

But the technicals are only half the picture.

→ CME open interest is sitting at historic lows just 425,000 contracts.

→ Institutional portfolios remain light on gold, amplifying future upside potential.

→ Equities are softening while industrial commodities show strength.

This alignment of low positioning, favourable macro winds, and strong structural foundations makes the current setup distinct. Not overextended. Not euphoric. Simply strong and possibly still early in its cycle.

If trade frictions linger and rate policy remains loose, the conditions for a sustained rally are not just present they're compounding.

♻️ If you found this article valuable, please share!

This article was written by our team, leveraging the Bullion Agents assistant AI to enhance our research and analysis capabilities.

Bullion Agents Platform currently in closed beta - Join our waitlist to learn more.