Gold Buying Accelerates as Markets Shift

The People’s Bank of China has added gold for five consecutive months. Global gold ETFs gained 21 tonnes in April alone, bringing total holdings to 3,460 tonnes. Chinese ETFs added 7.7 tonnes in March—setting a new record at 138 tonnes.

This is playing out against a heavy macro backdrop. The U.S. faces $9 trillion in debt refinancing over the next 12 months. Interest payments are nearing $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the dollar is down 10% year-to-date, prompting institutions to re-evaluate what qualifies as a safe reserve asset.

On the physical side, market structure is tightening. COMEX gold inventories now cover 98% of open interest. For context, open interest refers to the total number of active gold futures contracts—financial agreements to buy or sell gold at a future date. Normally, not everyone wants physical delivery, so only a portion of these contracts are backed by actual gold in the vaults.

But today, that coverage is nearly total. Inventories reached 1,509 tonnes on 3 April—"Liberation Day"—covering 93% of all contracts. Since then, futures activity has dropped while inventory levels held steady, pushing coverage to 98%. This suggests less speculative trading and more interest in holding physical metal.

In London, 11 tonnes flowed into vaults in March—a small recovery after 298 tonnes exited between November and February. Physical flows remain sensitive to macro pressures.

Technically, gold is overbought and may correct. But the scale and consistency of accumulation point to deeper structural shifts. Institutions appear to be repositioning around a world of higher rates, weaker currencies, and changing definitions of safety.

In this context, gold isn’t just reacting, more taking a chance to show its true colours.